Big Ten Bracketology: Iowa Looking Good, Indiana and Purdue Surviving

While this is our first look at Big Ten Bracketology, it's probably still a tad bit early to get a really good feel on some of the teams (but hey, we'll give it a go). While it's pretty safe to say teams like Michigan State, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Iowa are all in, the rest is more or less up in the air. A lot of people have Michigan as a team that's in, especially after a 3-0 conference start. However, their Big Ten schedule opened with a pretty easy start so it remains to be seen how they'll play versus the upper Big Ten without McGary. Likewise, Illinois looked like a NCAA team until they played a horrid 40 minutes against Northwestern, losing a game that the Wildcats were seemingly trying to giveaway at the end. Then we have teams like Indiana and Purdue, both of which faced must wins this past week versus the bottom of the Big Ten (Penn State, Nebraska), while Minnesota blew another chance at a marquee win against Michigan State. Either way, let's take a look at the conference.

Currently In

Wisconsin

Record	16-0 (3-0)
RPI	1
SOS	5
Non-Conf. RPI	5
Non-Conf. SOS	21
Average RPI WIn	108
Average RPI Loss	n/a
Vs. 1-50	6-0
Vs. 51-100	3-0
Vs. 101-200	5-0
Vs. 201+	2-0
Key Wins	Florida, Saint Louis, Iowa, Illinois
Key Losses	None
Upcoming Games	at Indiana, Michigan

Wisconsin is currently at the top of the Big Ten, has the #1 RPI, has a top five strength of schedule and six wins against the RPI top 50. The only question is if they'll continue their hot streak well into February and March. If they can, not only is a Big Ten title a likely possibility, but so is a #1 seed. While Michigan State was the preseason favorite, the Badgers have came on strong and created some serious doubt in that prediction. Bo Ryan's squad will face two tough, but winnable, games this week when they travel to Bloomington and then host the Wolverines. It'll be interesting to see if Wisconsin can keep up the hot streak and improve to 18-0.

Ohio State

Record	15-2 (2-2)
RPI	11
SOS	36
Non-Conf. RPI	9
Non-Conf. SOS	93
Average RPI WIn	136
Average RPI Loss	25
Vs. 1-50	1-2
Vs. 51-100	7-0
Vs. 101-200	3-0
Vs. 201+	4-0
Key Wins	Maryland, Notre Dame
Key Losses	Iowa
Upcoming Games	at Minnesota

Ohio State came into this past week undefeated and left with two losses. Now they'll have only one game as they travel to face Minnesota. Ohio State's a solid lock for the NCAA right now, though their 1-2 record versus the top 50 could potentially hurt their seeding if they can't pick up wins down the stretch. Regardless of how good Ohio State has looked at times, there's not enough marquee wins currently to put them too far up the seeding chart so look for Matta to try to get the Buckeyes to get the ball rolling in Big Ten play. The Minnesota game should be a win and would be a nice way to rebound after their back to back losses.

Michigan State

Record	15-1 (4-0)
RPI	8
SOS	17
Non-Conf. RPI	10
Non-Conf. SOS	71
Average RPI WIn	125
Average RPI Loss	52
Vs. 1-50	4-0
Vs. 51-100	2-1
Vs. 101-200	6-0
Vs. 201+	3-0
Key Wins	Ohio State, Kentucky, Oklahoma, at Texas
Key Losses	North Carolina
Upcoming Games	at Northwestern, at Illinois

Michigan State has struggled with consistency this season but their NCAA odds have never been in question. The only question currently related to these Spartans is if they're still the favorites to win the Big Ten. Luckily for Michigan State they avoided what would have been a loss against Ohio State had they made their layup in the closing seconds. Now Michigan State gets a slightly more manageable workload this week as they face off against Northwestern and Illinois in two easily winnable games.

Illinois

Record	13-4 (2-2)
RPI	23
SOS	51
Non-Conf. RPI	53
Non-Conf. SOS	130
Average RPI WIn	193
Average RPI Loss	76
Vs. 1-50	1-2
Vs. 51-100	1-0
Vs. 101-200	5-2
Vs. 201+	6-0
Key Wins	Indiana
Key Losses	at Georgia Tech, at Northwestern
Upcoming Games	Purdue, Michigan State

When setting up the tables for this article I had Illinois as in pretty easily. They had a solid start to the season, knocked off Indiana and have enough talent that it looks like they're capable of winning in the Big Ten. Now after last Sunday's performance against Northwestern...I don't know. The Illini only have two wins against the RPI top 100 and now have two very, very bad losses against Georgia Tech and Northwestern. Their RPI is still solid and if they win enough games in the Big Ten, all criticisms of their resume will be null and void. However, Groce needs to get his team prepared for this weeks game against Purdue as that could be a major blow to their NCAA odds, especially if Illinois starts to slip back towards what everyone anticipated from them. The weekend doesn't get any easier for Illinois, but at least they have Michigan State at home.

Iowa

Record	14-3 (3-1)
RPI	41
SOS	111
Non-Conf. RPI	30
Non-Conf. SOS	204
Average RPI WIn	166
Average RPI Loss	3
Vs. 1-50	2-3
Vs. 51-100	2-0
Vs. 101-200	5-0
Vs. 201+	5-0
Key Wins	at Ohio State, Xavier
Key Losses	None
Upcoming Games	Minnesota

They finally did it. Iowa padded their win total early with a light schedule and failed in all three opportunities to pick up nice wins, losing in winnable games against Villanova, Iowa State and Wisconsin (reflected in their average RPI loss). Everyone more or less penciled in Iowa as good, but they still hadn't won anything of relevance until this weekend, heading into Columbus and upsetting the Buckeyes. Now with a big win on the resume, the question becomes if Iowa can enter the Big Ten title race. They've shown the potential to do so and will host Minnesota in their only game this week, but for now Iowa can celebrate their big weekend victory.

Bubble

Minnesota

Record	12-4 (2-2)
RPI	42
SOS	41
Non-Conf. RPI	66
Non-Conf. SOS	129
Average RPI WIn	180
Average RPI Loss	38
Vs. 1-50	1-3
Vs. 51-100	1-1
Vs. 101-200	4-0
Vs. 201+	6-0
Key Wins	Florida State, at Richmond, Purdue
Key Losses	Michigan, Arkansas
Upcoming Games	Ohio State, at Iowa

Oh, Minnesota. Their 12-4 record is nice, as is picking up wins against Florida State, Richmond and Purdue, but none of it stands out. While Minnesota could be a NCAA team, if their bubble odds come down to comparing resumes...they might be in trouble. Of course they could have changed that with several winnable non-conference games that would have looked mighty nice. This trend continued into the Big Ten season as Minnesota couldn't pick off Michigan at home and then couldn't pick up the road upset in East Lansing, falling to the Spartans in overtime. Now Minnesota faces a rough week against Ohio State and Iowa and could be 12-6 (2-4) by the end of the weekend. If that happens, which seems likely, Minnesota could be in some trouble. At least they picked up a win versus Purdue, likely keeping their NCAA odds afloat if they drop the next two. Minnesota has had plenty of opportunities to pick up some big wins. Sooner or later if they cannot capitalize on these opportunities than they'll start looking more like a NIT team instead.

Michigan

Record	11-4 (3-0)
RPI	44
SOS	71
Non-Conf. RPI	49
Non-Conf. SOS	95
Average RPI WIn	170
Average RPI Loss	45
Vs. 1-50	2-3
Vs. 51-100	2-0
Vs. 101-200	3-1
Vs. 201+	4-0
Key Wins	Florida State, at Minnesota, Stanford
Key Losses	Charlotte
Upcoming Games	Penn State, at Wisconsin

Michigan's non-conference slate left a bit to be desired, saw McGary undergo back surgery and led to a horrible loss against Charlotte. The Wolverines still have two nice non-conference wins against Florida State and Stanford, as well as a decent win at Minnesota. They'll still need to win in the conference and they're off to a quick start thanks to a soft conference schedule early on, continuing this week with a home contest against Penn State. Winning these games will inch Michigan closer to 19 or 20 wins, which is more or less the magic number to get a tourney bid. The Wolverines will have a chance to add a big win to their resume this weekend, though, when they face off at Wisconsin.

Indiana

Record	11-5 (1-2)
RPI	70
SOS	80
Non-Conf. RPI	56
Non-Conf. SOS	185
Average RPI WIn	204
Average RPI Loss	30
Vs. 1-50	0-4
Vs. 51-100	0-1
Vs. 101-200	5-0
Vs. 201+	6-0
Key Wins	Washington
Key Losses	at Illinois, UCONN, Notre Dame
Upcoming Games	Wisconsin, Northwestern

Indiana lucked out big time with the win against Penn State, avoiding a crippling defeat against one of the worst teams in the Big Ten. Even with the win, the Hoosiers have an atrocious non-conference SOS of 185th and zero wins versus the RPI top 100 in five tries. So far with their best win being against Washington, Indiana will need to start picking up the slack in the Big Ten. The Hoosiers will have a chance this week as they host Wisconsin, which would be a resume defining win. If they lose? Well at least they can pad their resume this weekend with an irrelevant win against Northwestern.

Purdue

Record	11-5 (1-2)
RPI	113
SOS	143
Non-Conf. RPI	44
Non-Conf. SOS	255
Average RPI WIn	191
Average RPI Loss	60
Vs. 1-50	1-3
Vs. 51-100	2-1
Vs. 101-200	4-1
Vs. 201+	4-0
Key Wins	West Virginia, Nebraska
Key Losses	at Minnesota, Butler, Washington State
Upcoming Games	at Illinois, Penn State

Surviving, that's what Purdue is doing right now. Their non-conference slate won't help them any, but at least it didn't hurt them as much as it did last season. Outside of an inexplicable loss to Washington State, Purdue played decently enough and could have won against Oklahoma State and Butler. But with the Boilers two 'good' wins coming against two teams set to fade down the stretch (Boston College and West Virginia), Painter and company need wins now. The Ohio State loss was expected but the Minnesota loss increased the pressure here, especially with both being winnable games. Now Purdue has an Illinois game that is hovering around as a potential "must" win. A potential loss won't kill them, especially if Illinois stabilizes, but it makes thinks tricky for the Boilermakers (and will be detrimental if Illinois is in midst of another free fall). A road win against the Illini would easily be the best win of the year for Purdue and could be followed up with a win against Penn State, a week that would greatly improve their resume. With the non-conference SOS as bad as it is and a Washington State loss lingering around, Purdue likely will need to do a bit better than expected in conference play to sneak in, especially if there's a big bubble this year.

Currently Out

Nebraska

Record	8-8 (0-4)
RPI	80
SOS	21
Non-Conf. RPI	130
Non-Conf. SOS	69
Average RPI WIn	230
Average RPI Loss	45
Vs. 1-50	0-6
Vs. 51-100	1-0
Vs. 101-200	1-2
Vs. 201+	6-0
Key Wins	Miami
Key Losses	Michigan, UAB, at Purdue
Upcoming Games	No Games This Week

Kicking off the currently out section is Nebraska, though it should be noted that the following three teams will most likely not be featured in additional Bracketology posts unless they start picking up some wins in a hurry. With an even record through 16 games, no wins in conference and only two wins versus the RPI top 200...Nebraska doesn't even have their foot in the door. They had an opportunity to at least entertain the idea of being a fringe bubble team thanks to a modest RPI, but couldn't pick up wins in close games against Michigan and Purdue. Now it'll be worth watching to see if Nebraska can get to the NIT or the more likely CBI.

Penn State

Record	9-8 (0-4)
RPI	104
SOS	33
Non-Conf. RPI	90
Non-Conf. SOS	134
Average RPI WIn	220
Average RPI Loss	61
Vs. 1-50	0-4
Vs. 51-100	2-3
Vs. 101-200	0-1
Vs. 201+	7-0
Key Wins	Saint Johns, La Salle
Key Losses	Minnesota, Indiana, Ole Miss, Princeton, Bucknell
Upcoming Games	at Michigan, at Purdue

The Nittany Lions have talent in their backcourt but have been very, very inconsistent and have added some crushing losses to the resume thanks to losing efforts against Princeton and Bucknell. At 9-8 and the Big Ten slate not getting any easier, the question becomes how far will Penn State fall. At this point it's hard to predict any sort of postseason play for Penn State.

Northwestern

Record	8-9 (1-3)
RPI	179
SOS	92
Non-Conf. RPI	176
Non-Conf. SOS	226
Average RPI WIn	246
Average RPI Loss	62
Vs. 1-50	1-4
Vs. 51-100	0-4
Vs. 101-200	1-1
Vs. 201+	6-0
Key Wins	Illinois
Key Losses	at NCST, DePaul, Illinois State
Upcoming Games	Michigan State, at Indiana

Coming into Sunday Northwestern was easily the worst team in the conference, losing all seven games to RPI top 100 teams and even losing to DePaul and Illinois State. With no marquee wins and no offense whatsoever, Northwestern actually picked up a nice win against Illinois in a very, very ugly game. It may be one of the last high points for the Wildcats though as the team looks destined to struggle the remainder of the season. It doesn't get any easier this week either as the Wildcats will face off against Michigan State before traveling to Bloomington this weekend.