As the Big Ten season comes to an close this weekend, the NCAA Tournament picture in the conference seems relatively clear:

Locks: Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin

Bubble: Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State

For the teams in the rest of the conference, they will either have to make a major run in or win the Big Ten Tournament to make the dance. Even though bubble teams still have work to do themselves to make the tournament, a major part of making the tournament is what happens with other teams, especially in some of the smaller conferences. It seems like every season, at least one team that is a lock for the NCAA Tournament falls victim to an upset in the conference tournament and takes a bid away from a major conference team. With that in mind, lets look at some conference tournaments that either have already started or are starting this weekend that could play a major role in determing whether or not Big 10 teams on the bubble make the dance.

Colonial:

Likely Tournament Teams: George Mason (25-5, 16-2) and Old Dominion (24-6, 14-4). Both of these teams look solidly in the field, with George Mason a 7 seed and Old Dominion a 9 seed, in ESPN's latest Bracketology. Even though an early loss in the conference tournament would probably bring them down a seed line or two, it would not take them out of the field. George Mason may be the hottest team in the country, winning their last 15 games, and has wins over top 50 RPI teams Harvard and Old Dominion. Old Dominion also has had some big wins, including ones over George Mason, Xavier, Richmond, and Clemson. Both teams will probably be very dangerous in the Tournament.

Bubble Tournament Teams: None.

Watch out for: VCU and Hofstra. The VCU Rams went 21-10 overall, and 12-6 in the conference win a couple of big wins over UCLA and a road win over James Madison; they could easily make a run in the Colonial conference tournament. VCU plays Drexel in the quarterfinals tomorrow and will have likely have a meeting in the semis with George Mason. Hofstra finished tied with Old Dominion for 2nd in the league but did not have a nonconference marquee win that would get them into the field. They did however beat George Mason 87-74 earlier this year. They will play either James Madison or William and Mary in the quarterfinals and would probably play Old Dominion in the semifinals.

Prediction: George Mason outlasts VCU while Hofstra pulls an upset against Old Dominion in the semifinals. George Mason then wins a tight game against Hofstra in the Colonial final to extend their winning streak to 18 heading into the NCAA's. Bids Stolen: 0

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It’s another week in the books, and now it is only a week until the Big Ten regular season is over with.  ESPN’s Bracketology is updated with Michigan now in and Minnesota out.  There are still a lot of important games on tap including Michigan State @ Michigan and Wisconsin @ Ohio State.  Ohio State will have another target on its back this week after being voted number one in the polls. 

Big Ten Projections

Ohio State: Number 1 in the East

Chances of the Buckeyes making it to the Final Four: 53%

The Buckeyes came back to Columbus this past week and was able to reside there the entire week while hosting both Illinois and Indiana.  After two consecutive wins, Ohio State is on track to stay a number one seed and maybe the first overall seed come tournament time.  This week will be a good challenge for OSU as they go into Happy Valley before coming home to cap off the regular season against the Badgers.  Right now, State would be playing against a play-in game winner.  The 8/9 game winner doesn’t scare me if I am Ohio State.  A potential matchup between Jared Sullinger and Kemba Walker is possible with Connecticut slotted as the four seed in the East bracket, which could prove a challenge between two high scoring teams.  Thad Matta and his Buckeyes would also have a potential matchup against two long-standing coaches in Coach K and Jim Boeheim, with Duke and Syracuse respectively. 

(More following the JUMP!)

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ESPN's Bracketology is new and with it Penn State regains its bubble position. Penn State will make their push for the NCAA Tournament as they face Wisconsin, Ohio State and Minnesota yet. Win those and they are in. Michigan State, Illinois and Minnesota saw their seeds slip from Monday's bracket. 

Teams projected to be in the tournament:

Ohio State: Projected 1 Seed: Ohio State remains on top of the conference. With only one loss, they are projected as the overall number one, one seed in the tournament. If Ohio State doesn't get to the Final Four this year, I will be shocked. They have so many scoring weapons, that when the tournament roles around they will be tougher to beat then they are now. I don't think that this team will be like last year's Kansas and be upset by a team like Northern Iowa. I do think they will play their way to the Final Four. Right now, the bracket has them facing 16 seed Texas State or Hampton, depending on which team wins in the First Four. The number two seed in their region is Duke, the number three seed is Connecticut. I think whoever they face, Ohio State can beat them. 

(More teams after the jump)

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Since we just did a ESPN Bracketology extensive breakdown for Friday's bracket and with all seeds remaining the same for the Big Ten teams in the new bracket that came out Monday, which you can check out here, I decided to look at the only thing that is different from Friday's bracket to Monday's bracket, at least as far as the Big Ten is concerned. Michigan State, last projected a 10 seed, and Penn State, last projected a 12 seed, have been thrown out of the field, leaving the Big Ten with only five teams. Michigan State and Penn State are now on the outside looking it, yes they are on the bubble, but it is going to take some work from both of them if they want to be NCAA Tournament bound instead of an NIT consideration. There is a huge game coming up between the two on Thursday; last time Penn State upset then-18th ranked Michigan State in the Bryce Jordan Center. It's been downhill from there for the Spartans. They're both desperate for the win, so who wants it more?

(PSU and MSU analysis after the jump)

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ESPN's Bracketology is new and with it, Penn State has been introduced to the field. Michigan State, Illinois and Minnesota saw their seeds slip. Purdue and Wisconsin's seeds rose, while Ohio State remains a steady one seed. The addition of Penn State also gives the Big Ten one extra team, making a total of seven. Assuming Michigan State gets in, which is not going to be easy by any means, the Big Ten looks to have seven teams in the tournament come March. That would be the best case scenario for the Big Ten Conference overall. After our conference faltered to impress football minds across the nation on New Years Day this year, a day in which the Big Ten went 0-5 in bowl games, it is up to the basketball teams of Big Ten to advance deep into the tournament to show the nation why we are who we say we are.

Teams projected to be in the tournament:

Penn State: Projected 12 Seed: Penn State has gone from a projected last place Big Ten contender to being projected in the NCAA Tournament. They are still on the bubble but have been moving up every week. They have gone from out of the tournament to the next four out to the first four out and now are sitting in the last four in, which is where they want to be sitting in March. It is possible for Penn State to rise off the bubble and not even become a thought to the committee in March due to the fact that they still play four ranked opponents including number one ranked Ohio State at home. Right now, the Nittany Lions are projected to be in first round, which is now known as the First Four. The First Four is the first four games of the tournament that will be played in Dayton, Ohio. They are essentially play-in games, where two teams with the same seed compete to get into the second round. This is part of the new format for the expanded tournament. In that First Four game, Penn State is projected to play 12 seed Missouri State from the Missouri Valley Conference.

(More teams after the jump)

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The new ESPN Bracketology is in! Some Big Ten schools are seeing their seeds slip. Other Big Ten schools are holding steady with their seeding. It will be important come March for the Big Ten to have the best seeds possible. If the Big Ten is going to perform well in the NCAA Tournament it will be key to have higher seeds. It will put off playing the more powerful teams longer. The Big Ten will be looking for it's first national championship in basketball, men's or women's since 2000. They have a good chance to do it. In 2000, Michigan State won the national championship for the men's side. The MSU national championship was the Big Ten's 10th national championship in men's basketball.  In1999, the first and only women's basketball national championship was won by Purdue. 

Teams projected to be in the tournament:

Ohio State: Projected 1 Seed: Ohio State is a projected one seed, has been and probably won't move off one of the top lines. At this point, I think they have enough quality wins to get a #1 seed, even if they drop one or two games. There really isn't too much to say about Ohio State this week. They have an 85% chance of getting a #1 seed according to ESPN. Unless they go downhill drastically in the last stretch of their schedule.

(More teams after the jump)

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ESPN's Joe Lunardi's Bracketology for this week is out. Six Big Ten teams still remain in the field, all of them have a six seed or higher. Overall, that is great for the conference, the higher the seeds, the better chance you have of going deep into the tournament. The Big Ten would love a representative in Houston, TX.

Teams projected to be in the tournament:

Ohio State: Projected 1 Seed: Ohio State is ranked the unanimous number one team in the nation. They are still undefeated and still alone in first place in the conference standings. They are almost a lock for a number one seed, with a 75% chance of getting a number one seed. They have a big game tomorrow when they host #12 Purdue. That is a very important game for the conference, as it would even out first place, and tie Purdue and Ohio State at the top, while bringing the rest of the conference a game closer to first place.

(More teams after the jump)

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