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Around SBN: The Eternal Unpredictability of the 2011-12 Boston Celtics

Home and Away: Q and A

A standard trope when talking about the Big Ten basketball is how hard it is to win on the road. The reason why commentators say it so often is because it is true. When a team at the top of the conference standings manages to eke out a win on the road at a bottom-feeder, it is considered a great success. The main reason that a lot of people left Wisconsin for dead after their two early home losses is that they know how hard it is to pick up road wins. Michigan's win over Purdue Wednesday night was big because a conference road win over a middle of the pack team is considered a major accomplishment.

I rooted around on statsheet.com for awhile and found out some things about home court advantage in the Big Ten. I haven't used a Q and A format before, so that seems like something worth trying.

Q: How hard is it to win on the road in the Big Ten this season compared to others?

Short A: About the same.

Long A: Let's start with this year's stats (through Jan. 27):

Home team record in conference play: 32-17 (.653)

Away team record in conference play: 17-31 (.347)

Click on for the rest of this answer and some more Q and As.

Star-divide

Let's take a look at home team records for the past few years in conference play:

SEASON WINS LOSSES %
2010-11 67 32 .677
2009-10 58 41 .586
2008-09 65 34 .657
2007-08 61 38 .616
2006-07 62 26 .705
2005-06 62 26 .705
TOTALS 375 197 .656

As you can see, the current .653 home team win % is almost exactly what the average over the past six seasons has been.

Q: Is it harder to win on the road in the Big Ten compared to other conferences?

Short A: Not really.

Long A: The following table shows the home records for selected conferences over the past three full seasons.

CONFERENCE WINS LOSSES %
BIG TEN 190 107 .640
ACC 190 98 .660
BIG EAST 259 173 .600
BIG 12 192 96 .667
PAC 12 171 99 .633
SEC 119 73 .620
MVC 120 60 .667
WCC 104 64 .619
PATRIOT 103 65 .613
HORIZON 110 70 .611
TOTALS 1558 905 .633

As you can see, it is hard to win on the road in any conference. The Big Ten sits in the middle of the pack of these conferences, and the larger conferences (other than the Big East) tend to do a better job protecting home court than the smaller conferences (other than the Missouri Valley).

Q: Are there any home/away record oddities for teams in the Big Ten this season?

Short A: Yes.

Long A: I am glad that I asked this question. Teams normally win more games at home than away. Good teams win most, if not all, of their home games and steal some on the road. Bad teams normally win a few games at home during the season, but are lucky to get one on the road. Let's take a look at two teams that aren't following that trend.

Iowa: 3-5 overall, 1-3 at home, 2-2 on the road
The Hawkeyes are 3-5 in the Big Ten so far, which is pretty good considering how they looked in the non-con. After losing at home to Purdue, they beat Wisconsin and Minnesota on the road. Since then they have lost to OSU and Nebraska at home and Purdue and MSU on the road. Their lone win was at home against Michigan. The strangest results were the win at Wisconsin and the home loss to Nebraska.

Wisconsin: 6-3 overall, 3-2 at home, 3-1 on the road
Wisconsin's home loss to Iowa was a shock and it was followed by another one, this time to MSU. Since Bo Ryan's teams normally rely on a near-perfect record in the Kohl Center to keep them in the conference hunt, this was not a good sign. The Badgers went on to prove that they were a decent team with wins at Illinois' Assembly Hall and Mackey Arena.

Q: Can you think of anymore questions to answer about home and away games at this time?

Short A: None that would be easy to research.

Long A: If anybody else has a question about home and away games, feel free to leave it in the comments and I'll try to answer it. If anyone has some information that might be considered interesting about this topic, please leave it in the comments as well.

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Great work

Here’s a question: what is the % of fouls (or FT attempts) for home/away?

by MSUDersh on Jan 28, 2012 4:45 PM CST via mobile reply actions  

Not as easy to find out

I couldn’t find a home/away split for fouls. I might have time after the season is over to put all of the stats together. I did a quick one for Michigan State fouls for home/away this season. The foul number can be misleading if a team has to foul at the end of the game, but here is something:

OPP MSU margin
vs IND 18 14 15 win
vs Iowa 16 17 34 win
vs Pur 18 19 25 win
vs Minn 19 17 16 win
avg 17.75 16.75

at Neb 18 15 13 win
at Wis 19 22 3 win
at NW 18 25 7 loss
at Mich 8 12 1 loss
15.75 18.5

Not sure that means a lot, but MSU has been called for more fouls than their opponent in away games by almost 3, In home games they have been called on the opponent at a rate of 1 more per game.

Statsheet has specific stats broken down by referee. They even have a Home Margin stat that gives an idea of how many more fouls the ref calls on the away team. You can find that here

Manager at BT Powerhouse a Big Ten basketball blog
@babaoreally

by babaoreally on Jan 28, 2012 10:02 PM CST up reply actions  

OK thanks!

And yeah, measuring fouls or even FTs is tough, because of the variable of deliberate fouling late in the game. So though there appears to be a swing of 4 fpg in the MSU games, we don’t know how much of that is fouling at the end to stretch the game out.

by MSUDersh on Jan 31, 2012 11:02 AM CST up reply actions  


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