For the only three Big Ten teams that have a 100% chance of making the NCAA Tournament, the Big Ten Tournament this weekend is all about seeding. Those three teams? Ohio State, Purdue and Wisconsin. These teams could lose their first game in the Big Ten Tournament by 30 points and still get in. They don't have to worry about advancing far enough to get off the bubble and into the tournament, as some of the other teams do.
Both Purdue and Wisconsin have a chance to improve their seeding this weekend with nice runs in the Big Ten Tournament, while Ohio State is a near lock for a number one seed.
In the Big Ten Tournament, Ohio State has the easiest road to the championship game, as the number one seed. If Purdue and Wisconsin avoid upsets in the quarterfinals they will have to battle it out to advance to the championship game. If they do end up playing each other, the winner has a good chance of improving their seed.
With that said, we are going to take a look at each of these teams, their seeding chances and how/if they can improve their seed for Selection Sunday. I used ESPN's S-Curve and predicted the seeds each team would get from that.
NCAA Tournament Lock: Ohio St. Buckeyes
Ohio State really can't improve their seed and I don't think they can hurt it either. Ohio State is a lock for a number one seed no matter what happens in the Big Ten Tournament. The only thing they could hurt is whether or not they are going to be the overall number one seed out of the four number one seeds. As of now, they are the overall number one seed. But that could change with a loss in the quarterfinals or semifinals and a Kansas Big 12 Tournament Championship.
Seed as of now: Overall #1 Seed
Seed they will most likely receive: Overall #1 Seed
Seed with loss to Minnesota or Northwestern: #1 Seed (if Kansas wins Big 12 Tourney)
Seed with semifinal loss to Michigan or Illinois: #1 Seed (if Kansas wins Big 12 Tourney)
Seed with championship game loss: Overall #1 Seed
Seed with Big Ten Tournament Championship: Overall #1 Seed
NCAA Tournament Lock: Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue's seeding got interesting when they took a shocking loss to Iowa. They were in line for a number one seed and probably would be holding one right now if they didn't lose due to the loss by Duke. Now, they have a very very very outside chance at a one seed but a lot has to happen in order for that to occur. Purdue is now playing to hold a high two seed. They could end up with a three seed if things don't go their way in the Big Ten Tournament. If Purdue wins the Big Ten Tournament and Notre Dame, Duke, North Carolina, Texas and BYU fall early in their respected conference tournaments, Purdue could get the last 1 seed.. but that is asking a lot.
Seed as of now: First 3 Seed
Seed they will most likely receive: 2 Seed
Seed with loss to Iowa or Michigan State: 3 Seed
Seed with semifinal loss to Wisconsin: Low 2 Seed
Seed with semifinal loss to Penn State: 3 Seed
Seed with semifinal loss to Indiana: 3 Seed
Seed with championship game loss: Low 2 Seed
Seed with Championship: Last 1 Seed/First 2 Seed (Depending upon other conference tournaments)
NCAA Tournament Lock: Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin's seed is very fluid right now. They have gone from a two to a three and now stand as four, as I type this, in the last couple weeks. They could end up anywhere from a 2-5. Most likely they will end up somewhere in the 3-5 range. They have a very outside chance at a two, but I think at this point, to many things would have to happen for them to get a two. Wisconsin can really help out their seed by beating Purdue and advancing to the finals, if Purdue does in fact advance to the semifinals.
Seed as of now: Last 4 Seed
Seed they will most likely receive: 4 Seed
Seed with loss to Penn State or Indiana: 5 Seed
Seed with semifinal loss to Purdue: 4 Seed
Seed with semifinal loss to Iowa: 5 Seed
Seed with semifinal loss to Michigan State: 5 seed
Seed with championship game loss: 3 Seed
Seed with Championship: 3 Seed (Outside shot at a 2, but dominos have to fall for that to happen)