Déjà vu: or Why Wisconsin Fans Should Be Optimistic
by babaoreally on Mar 14, 2011 12:04 PM CDT
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It seems like every expert has picked 4 seed Wisconsin to lose to 13 seed Belmont, and Badger fans don't seem inclined to disagree with them. The small sample of Wisconsin fan comments that I have seen tend towards the negative. This comment was left at Bucky's 5th Quarter upon seeing the draw (and is not an uncommon one):
Belmont is an awful draw for Bucky.
Looks like a first round exit in 2011.
by ThroughBeingCool
I am here to talk some of the Badger fans off the ledge. I have seen this play out before, and it turned out just fine. I am talking about the Purdue - Siena first round matchup from last year, which I was reminded of as soon as the analysts starting talking up Belmont's chances during the selection shows.
There are many parallels between the Wisconsin - Belmont matchup and the 2010 Purdue - Siena game.
- Popular upset pick: Belmont over Wisconsin is a popular choice, as Siena over Purdue was last year. It seemed like everyone including the president (probably after hearing every expert on the selections show do it) picked Siena.
- It is a 4 vs 13 game, with the Big Ten teams having the 4 seed.
- Purdue had an atrocious game in the Big Ten Tournament, managing to score only 11 points in the first half against Minnesota. While Wisconsin didn't get beat by 27 like the Boilers did, losing 36-33 to Penn State is pretty awful.
- Siena lost one conference game in 2010; Belmont lost one conference game this year. Last year Siena was 0-5 against top 50 RPI teams; this year Belmont was 0-3.
- Playing out west: Boilers in Spokane, Badgers in Tucson.
And how did the Purdue - Siena game turn out?
Pretty good for the Big Ten team, and pretty bad for the experts' favorite upset pick.
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This does reassure me a bit.
Not that I was really considering picking Belmont in my bracket.
But if UW can figure out how to shoot above 35% away from the Kohl Center, I think we’re fine. Unfortunately, that’s a big “if” lately.
"Career highlights? I had two. I got an intentional walk from Sandy Koufax and I got out of a rundown against the Mets." - Bob Uecker
Counterpoint
I still think the trendy upset pick last year was a 4 v 13 game, but was Vanderbilt v. Murray State, instead of Purdue v. Siena. Also I think the reason Siena was such a trendy pick was because of their past tournament success as they were not a great team last year (49th overall, 77th in offense, 54th in defense according to Kenpom). Kenpom says that Belmont is a great team this year(18th overall, 32nd in offense, and 19th in defense). One final difference is that Purdue was a great defense last year (3rd overall) and Wisconsin does not (63rd overall this year); Its a solid defense but if the shots arent falling, it wont be good enough to beat Belmont.
Arsenal, Hawkeyes, Bears, and Brewers: gotta win something sometime right?
Wisconsin: too many white guys
It’s ok ppl, I’m a white guy. I can say it.
HELP IS ON THE WAY
http://www.insidetheshoe.com/
by SouthBayBuckeye on Mar 14, 2011 3:54 PM CDT reply actions
I seem to be seeing either
Wisconsin knocked out in round 1 or in the Final Four, a la Garry Parish and the Wall Street Journal.
On Wisconsin.
I love Pomeroy's work so
2011 Belmont – KenPom #18
2010 Siena – KenPom #59
2011 Wisconsin – KenPom #9
2010 Purdue – KenPom #16
Belmont is much better than Siena was last year, but Wisconsin is slightly better than Purdue was last year. So my answer is: indeterminate.
Tough four teams in that grouping though. There would be better 5’s to face than KSU and USU and Belmont are 30+ win mid-majors.
Maize-Colored Glasses: A Quick Reaction to Michigan's NCAA Tournament Draw
I think Wisconsin is a very bad matchup for K-State.
Utah State is Wisconsin in a weaker conference; practically invincible at home but vulnerable on the road.
Editor at BT Powerhouse, a Big Ten Basketball blog.
Author at Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog
Fighting the Battle of Who Could Care Less since 12/29/09
by OBrienSchofieldismyHero on Mar 15, 2011 12:45 AM CDT up reply actions
I still can't believe Utah State is a 12 seed!
talk about a huge underseeding, they were ranked in the top 20 and won their tournament, how does that happen? They will beat Kansas State.
by ThroughBeingCool on Mar 15, 2011 3:55 AM CDT reply actions
